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变化环境下澜沧江—湄公河流域径流演变及年内分配特征
1, 2,3, 2,3, 4, 5, 2,3,6

(1.neimengguzizhiqushuiziyuanyushuiquanshouchuzhongxin, huhehaote010020; 2.nanjingshuilikexueyanjiuyuan shuiwenshuiziyuanyushuiligongchengkexueguojiazhongdianshiyanshi, nanjing 210029; 3.shuilibu yingduiqihoubianhuayanjiuzhongxin, nanjing 210029; 4.yunnandaxue guojiheliuyushengtaianquanyanjiuyuan, kunming 650500; 5.shuilibu nanjingshuilishuiwenzidonghuayanjiusuo, nanjing 210012; 6.zhangjiangbaohuyulvsefazhanyanjiuyuan, nanjing 210098)

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Characteristics of Runoff Variation and Seasonal Pattern of Lancang-Mekong River in the Context of Environment Change
LI Yang1, WANG Jie2,3, TANG Xiongpeng2,3, LUO Xian4, TAN Xiaoshan5, WANG Guoqing2,3,6

(1.administration center for water resources and water right of inner mongolia autonomous region, huhehot 010020, china; 2.state key laboratory of hydrology water resources and hydraulic engineering, nanjing hydraulic research institute, nanjing 210029, china; 3.research center for climate change, ministry of water resources, nanjing 210029, china; 4.institute of international river and eco-security, yunan university, kunming 650500, china; 5.nanjing automation institute of water conservancy and hydrology, nanjing 210012, china; 6.yangtze institute for conservation and development, nanjing 210098, china)

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备注

澜沧江—湄公河(简称:澜湄流域)是亚洲重要的国际河流,分析径流演变特征是跨境流域国进行水资源开发利用的重要基础工作。基于澜沧江—湄公河干流8个水文站1960—2012年的实测径流资料,在进行区间划分及区间径流量计算的基础上,采用Mann-kendall趋势检验及有序聚类突变诊断方法分析了径流时空演变特征。结果表明:(1)旧州和穆达汉站实测径流量呈现非显著性增加趋势,其余6个水文站实测年径流量呈现减少趋势,其中允景洪站径流减少显著; 呈现增加或减少趋势的区间径流量各占一半。(2)站点及区间径流量均存在有突变特征,最早的突变发生在20世纪60年代,最晚的突变年份发生在2008年; 并且区间径流量和站点径流量在20世纪90年代及其以后的时期发生突变的占比明显高于前期。(3)环境变化特别是水电开发对允景洪—万象区间干流水文站径流年内分配的影响较为明显,1990—2012年期间主汛期流量较1960—1989年期间流量减小,但后期非汛期流量较前期略有增大,说明以水电开发为主的环境变化对该区间站点径流的影响主要体现为削峰补枯,该影响在一定程度上减轻了澜沧江—湄公河的防洪压力。
The Lancang-Mekong River(abbreviated as LM River)is an important trans-boundary river in Asia. It is of significance to investigate characteristics of runoff variation for supporting sustainable water resources utilization between riparian countries of the LM River Basin. Based on recorded runoff at the eight hydrometric stations on the LM River with time series span of 1960—2012 and segment of sub-regions, the variation trends of annual regional runoff and seasonal patterns of site runoff were analyzed by using Mann-Kendall test and cluster analysis methods. The results show that:(1)the recorded runoff at Jiuzhou and Mukdahan stations presented an increasing trend during the period 1960—2012 while that gauged at the other six hydrometric stations exhibited a decreasing trend with a significant decrease occurring at the Yunjinghong station; half of the eight regional runoff tended to decrease with a significant decrease occurring at the region from Jiuzhou to Yunjinghong while the other four regional runoff had increasing trends with significant runoff increase occurring in two regions of region from Cangdu to Jiuzhou and region from Vientiane to Mukdahan;(2)both site runoff and regional runoff were detectable in abrupt changes with the earliest abrupt change occurring in the 1960s and the latest occurring in 2008; It was also found that the number of abrupt changes in 1990—2012 was more than that in the previous period 1960—1989;(3)environment changes, particularly hydropower development in the upper reaches of the LM River basin exerted a certain impact of seasonal pattern of stream runoff gauged from Yunjinghong to Vientiane station; discharges in flood season of 1990—2012 were commonly lower than those of 1960—1989 while discharges in dry season of the later period were higher than those in the earlier period of 1960—1989, which could effectively reduce flood control pressure.
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